In our original article published in October 2017, which forecast the South African salary increase for 2018 – https://axiomatic.co.za/news/salary-increases-for-2018/, we stated that the general market salary increase would be between 6.0% and 6.5%. However, we did caution that the final increase would depend to a large extent on the trajectory of inflation and the exchange rate over the months that followed publication.
Inflation has continued to surprise to the downside and the March 2018 CPI was published at 3.8%, which was lower than February’s 4.0% reading. This represents a 7-year low and the current stability of the index is clearly demonstrated by the fact that inflation has now remained within the SA Reserve Bank’s 3% to 6% target band for 12 consecutive months- the longest run since 2015.
However, given the factors detailed below, we believe that February’s reading represents the low point of this inflation cycle:
Even though we claim that the March 2018 reading represents the nadir in the cycle, we are also confident that inflation will remain contained and within the SA Reserve Bank’s target range until at least the end of 2019. Our projections are enumerated in the table below.
Companies who are now granting increases, need to take cognisance of the forecast average inflation for the period applicable to which they are granting salary increases.
Our October 2017 report stated that real salary increases in 2018 would be restricted to an increase of 1.0% in 2018. Therefore, this formula derives:
Projected inflation for the period May 2018 to April 2019
5.0% + real salary increases 1.0% = projected salary increases for 2018 = 6.0%.
Projected inflation for the period June 2018 to May 2019
5.0% + real salary increases 1.0% = projected salary increases for the period = 6.0%.
We believe companies currently in their increase cycles, should be granting an average salary increase of 6.0%.
For more information please contact Brett Hopkins on +27 11 305 1945 or email@example.com
To read the 2018 salary increases in the UAE click here: https://axiomatic.co.za/news/2018-salary-increases-in-the-uae/
To read the March 2018 update click here: https://axiomatic.co.za/news/salary-increases-for-2018-a-march-update/
To read the January 2018 update click here: https://axiomatic.co.za/news/salary-increases-2018-january-update/